Originally posted here (link)
Things we know: Real Madrid comfortably defeated Galatasaray on Wednesday night in the Bernabau. A 3-0 first leg lead should be be a big enough advantage to see Madrid through to the Semi-Finals.
What I wanted to show you guys today are the underlying numbers of Madrid's victory. What did the shot count look like, how did it change in-game, and how one team was far more accurate with the shots it had taken.
First of all I want to show you how each teams share of the shots (In-Game Total Shots Ratio) changed throughout the game.
This is a graph which shows us each teams moving average share of the shots throughout the game. As we can see it fluctuates somewhat during the game due to score effects.
0-9 minutes: Madrid are winning the shots battle handily early doors and this culminates in the opening goal.
10-29 minutes:Madrid, according to the shots ratio either sit off and defend the slender one goal lead or Galatasaray attempt to storm back for the away team heavily out-shoots Madrid in this time bracket. Unfortunately, Galatasaray's best spell of the game in terms of shots ends with Madrid scoring goal number 2.
30-94 minutes: Galatasaray's lead in the shots battle is gradually reduced by Madrid who regain the lead in the shots battle on the 59th minute and never again relinquish it. Madrid's 3rd goal arrives on 73 minutes and the game is comfortable from there on out.
One question I had, and it's one I haven't featured in posts like this before is how the frequency of each teams shots changes over the course of the game.
In-Game Shot Frequency
The above graph features each teams moving average in shots/minutes played. By doing this we get a shot per minute frequency for each team.
Madrid had a lightning quick start, firing in many shots in the first 9 minutes of the game, after that Madrid shot frequency dips and then becomes stable at around 0.2 shots per minute until around the 61st minute. For the rest of the game, and with Madrid comfortable with the 2 goal lead, we see Madrid's shot frequency tail off and then dip again in the last ten minutes in order to prevent any away goals conceded.
For Galatasaray, a poor start by SPM frequency but once they were a goal down and score effects kick in the away team up their frequency of shots to a peak of a shade under 0.3 shots per minute. That peak around the minutes Madrid scored their 2nd goal. Game over in a way, and from there on Madrid had complete control over the game.
This is evident in Galatasaray's 67 minute decline in shots per minute frequency.
Madrid shut this game down, reducing the away teams shot frequency and, as a by-product, also their own shot frequency. Tactics, I guess.
A weird chart but it visualizes some key info. We'll call this the shots breakdown.
Madrid's triangle is weighted towards the northerly tip which indicates a bigger percentage of their shots were on target. This is a good thing. Madrid's triangle leans slightly to the left also, this indicates more of their non-on target shots were blocked rather than missed outright.
For Galatasaray we see their triangle is leaning heavily to the bottom right towards shots off target (7).
I feel this is an interesting chart for it gives us some much needed context in an easily understandable visual format. It tells us something important about Galatasaray's impressive shot count of 14: it's made up largely of 'dud' shots, shots off target, shots that were never going in. This is visualized by the shape of their triangle.
Galatasaray's shots off target may have been caused by Madrid restricting the quality of Galatasaray's shots, or it may have been caused by simple wastefulness on the away teams part.
Hope you enjoyed this, any feedback on these experimental charts I created is more than welcome.