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Madrid's Probabilities for the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Draw

Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images

With the final round of the Champions League group stage completed, Madridistas and football fans everywhere will be eagerly awaiting Monday's draw for the Round of 16.

Real Madrid join Barcelona, Bayern, Chelsea, Atléti, Porto, Dortmund and Monaco as group winners, who will face off against runners-up Arsenal, Schalke, Juventus, PSG, Shakhtar, Basel, Manchester City and Bayer Leverkusen.

Many people believe that their team has an equal probability of getting any other team in the draw, with the exception of the other team from their group or a team from the same country, which isn't allowed at this stage of the competition. However, this isn't true - because of these restrictions, each group winner has a different number and combination of runners-up they can draw.

Real Madrid is most likely to play Schalke (18.933%) and Leverkusen (17.759%), followed by City and Arsenal (14.438%), PSG (12.511%), and Shakhtar and Juventus (10.961%).

By comparison, Bayern has a nearly one in four chance of meeting Arsenal for the third successive season (24.048%), and Chelsea has a staggering 28.742% chance of meeting Leverkusen in the next round. Real Madrid's relatively even probabilities are due to the two other Spanish teams remaining in the competition winning their groups, leaving los merengues with only one ineligible side: our group runners-up, Basel.

Take a look at the full table courtesy of statistical wizard MisterChip and thank him for his work!

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