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Real Madrid - Juventus, Champions League 2015: Odds at a penalty shootout

What could be an all new edition of the Casillas vs Buffon legendary clash.

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

I am pretty sure you all remember the 2012 Champions League semifinals as well as I do. A fantastic Real Madrid side, coached by José Mourinho, lost the first leg against Bayern by 2-1, which was not considered a bad result because of the importance of away goals. The early minutes in the second leg at the Bernabéu seemed to confirm such idea, when Los Blancos managed to get a 2-0 lead before the fifteenth minute.

Unfortunately, Arjen Robben managed to score a penalty kick before the thirtieth minute and the scoreboard never changed, thanks to the combination of a certain cowardice from Los Blancos, an extraordinary performance by Toni Kroos on top of Xabi Alonso, and some bad luck in the extra time. Real Madrid had no chance at the penalty shootout with the mistakes by Ronaldo, Kaká and Ramos, and were eliminated at the semifinals for the second consecutive time.

Given that Real Madrid also lost by 2-1 in Turin last week and that Juventus' defence will make it really hard for Los Blancos to score three or more goals, the possibility of reaching a penalty shootout tonight should not be ruled out. An all new edition of the Casillas vs Buffon clash would be held and, although Iker has a 2-0 advantage so far (the 2008 Eurocup quarterfinals and the 2013 Confe Cup semifinal), stats tell us that both teams have similar outputs from the penalty spot.

Indeed, if we only take into account the data from La Liga, the Serie A and the Champions League, Real Madrid have managed to score 80% of their penalty kicks (12 out of 15), while Juventus'  efficiency decreases to a 66% (6 out of 9). On the other hand, Los Blancos received a goal 83% of the times (5 out of 6) they had to face a penalty kick, while Juventus only received 50% of them (2 out of 4). Both Casillas and Buffon have been able to block just one penalty kick in their league and Champions League games.

Although data seem to be favorable to Los Blancos, we should take into account that our specialist Cristiano Ronaldo has missed the last two penalty kicks he has taken. If it all comes to a penalty shootout, we will have to trust him, Bale, Kroos, Ramos and James and, probably, Iker Casillas above all. It would be a great chance for El Santo to redeem himself and make peace with the supporters.

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